What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Specialty Retail) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksULTA

ULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Specialty RetailINTACT

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. It also provides wellness products. The company was formerly known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Share Price

$545.50

52W: $443.6 - $714.97

DCF Fair Value

$368.62

-48% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

19.9x

ROIC

9.4%

Operating Margin

12.5%

FCF Yield

3.9%

Debt / Equity

0.95x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.86

Market Cap

$23.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($368.62)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$368.62

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$276.47

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($368.62) 25% MOS Buy Target ($276.47) Revised Graham ($450.57) Graham Number ($198.04)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$545.50

DCF Fair Value

$367.39

-48.5% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$914M

$100M$914M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$2,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$7.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$10.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$18.1B

Implied Equity Value

$15.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$972	$1,033	$1,098	$1,167	$1,241	$1,296	$1,355	$1,416	$1,479	$1,546
Present Value (PV)	$891	$869	$848	$827	$806	$773	$741	$710	$681	$653

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-175.4% Premium

$198.04

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $27.46BVPS: $63.48

Revised Graham Formula-21.1% Premium

$450.57

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.7% Yield

$20.19 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 3.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

8.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $545.50, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 8.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ULTA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Ulta Beauty, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Track ULTA & Set Alerts Browse S&P 500 Coverage

Frequently Asked Questions: Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Ulta Beauty, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Ulta Beauty, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $368.62 per share compared to its current market price of $545.50. This represents an estimated 48.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $198.04.