NKE

Nike, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Footwear & AccessoriesINTACT

NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company offers its products under the NIKE, Jordan, Converse, Jumpman, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. It also provides a line of performance equipment and accessories, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities; and sports apparel, as well as sells products to wholesale customers and directly to consumers through NIKE Direct operations; distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories; and markets apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos. In addition, the company offers consumer services and experiences, including sport focused events and activations; fitness and activity apps; sport, fitness, and wellness content; and digital services and features in retail stores. It sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other wholesale accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, independent distributors, licensees, sales representatives, and digital platforms. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in May 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.

Share Price
$36.90
52W: $36.55 - $76.97
DCF Fair Value
$29.55
-24.9% Premium
P/E (TTM)
17.6x
ROIC
9.5%
Operating Margin
12.7%
FCF Yield
3.5%
Debt / Equity
0.74x
Piotroski Score
8/9
Altman Z-Score
4.61
Market Cap
$54.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($29.55)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$29.55
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$22.16
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$36.90
DCF Fair Value
$29.53
-25% Premium
$1,889M
$100M$1,889M (Reported)$50,000M
6.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$2,000M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$16.1B
PV of Terminal Value
$21.3B
Implied Enterprise Value
$37.4B
Implied Equity Value
$35.4B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,008$2,135$2,269$2,412$2,564$2,679$2,800$2,926$3,057$3,195
Present Value (PV)$1,842$1,797$1,752$1,709$1,666$1,598$1,532$1,468$1,408$1,350

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-69.6% Premium
$21.76

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.10BVPS: $10.02
Revised Graham Formula-6.5% Premium
$34.65

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings4.1% Yield
$1.50 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.8BYield: 4.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER
7.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $36.90, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NKE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Nike, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Nike, Inc. (NKE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Nike, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Nike, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $29.55 per share compared to its current market price of $36.90. This represents an estimated 24.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $21.76.

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