What is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is The Home Depot, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

The Home Depot, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Home Improvement Retail) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is The Home Depot, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

The Home Depot, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits The Home Depot, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksHD

HD

Home Depot, Inc. (The)Consumer Cyclical / Home Improvement RetailINTACT

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, baths, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, windows, and window coverings. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company serves consumers, such as do-it-yourself homeowners and do-it-for-me customers; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, homebuilders, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors and specialty tradespeople, such as electricians, landscapers, insulation installers, plumbers, painters, pool contractors, roofers, and wallboard and ceiling installers. It sells its products through websites and its mobile applications, including homedepot.com; homedepot.ca and homedepot.com.mx; blinds.com, justblinds.com, and americanblinds.com for custom window coverings; constructionresourcesusa.com or design-oriented surfaces, appliances, and architectural specialty products; thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products; hdsupply.com for maintenance, repair, and operations products and related services; and srsdistribution.com, heritagelandscapesupplygroup.com, heritagepoolsupplygroup.com, and gms.com for roofing and building materials, landscape, and pool products; and The Home Depot stores. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Share Price

$309.58

52W: $289.1 - $426.75

DCF Fair Value

$153.88

-101.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

21.7x

ROIC

9.7%

Operating Margin

12.9%

FCF Yield

3.5%

Debt / Equity

3.8x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.82

Market Cap

$308.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($153.88)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$153.88

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$115.41

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($153.88) 25% MOS Buy Target ($115.41) Revised Graham ($238.24) Graham Number ($73.14)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$309.58

DCF Fair Value

$154.14

-100.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$10,763M

$100M$10,763M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$61,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$92.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$122.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$214.9B

Implied Equity Value

$153.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$11,463	$12,208	$13,001	$13,846	$14,746	$15,410	$16,103	$16,828	$17,585	$18,377
Present Value (PV)	$10,516	$10,275	$10,039	$9,809	$9,584	$9,188	$8,809	$8,445	$8,097	$7,762

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-323.3% Premium

$73.14

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $14.28BVPS: $16.65

Revised Graham Formula-29.9% Premium

$238.24

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.3% Yield

$10.25 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $10.2BYield: 3.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

10.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $309.58, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 10.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil HD with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Home Depot, Inc. (The). If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 12.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Home Depot, Inc. (The).

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Home Depot, Inc. (The) has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $153.88 per share compared to its current market price of $309.58. This represents an estimated 101.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $73.14.