What is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Tesla, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Tesla, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Auto Manufacturers) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Tesla, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Tesla, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Tesla, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksTSLA

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Auto ManufacturersINTACT

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive; and Energy Generation and Storage. The company offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty maintenance services and collision, automotive insurance services, as well as part sales and retail merchandise sale. It also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. In addition, the company engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners. Further, it provides services and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty and extended service plans; and various financing options to its residential customers; lithium-ion battery energy storage products, such as Powerwall and Megapack; energy generation products, including solar panels and solar roof; self-driving development and artificial intelligence software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and battery and powertrain. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Share Price

$368.16

52W: $297.38 - $498.83

DCF Fair Value

$30.21

-1118.7% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

344.1x

ROIC

Operating Margin

1.4%

FCF Yield

0.3%

Debt / Equity

0.18x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

2.81

Market Cap

$1454.1B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($30.21)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$30.21

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$22.66

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($30.21) 25% MOS Buy Target ($22.66) Revised Graham ($16.18) Graham Number ($23.01)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$368.16

DCF Fair Value

$30.17

-1120.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$4,836M

$100M$4,836M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$27,400M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$39.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$52.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$91.8B

Implied Equity Value

$119.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$5,092	$5,362	$5,646	$5,946	$6,261	$6,543	$6,837	$7,145	$7,466	$7,802
Present Value (PV)	$4,672	$4,513	$4,360	$4,212	$4,069	$3,901	$3,740	$3,586	$3,438	$3,296

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-1500% Premium

$23.01

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.07BVPS: $22.00

Revised Graham Formula-2175.4% Premium

$16.18

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.3% Yield

$1.16 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $4.6BYield: 0.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

43.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $368.16, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 43.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil TSLA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Tesla, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 1.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Tesla, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Tesla, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $30.21 per share compared to its current market price of $368.16. This represents an estimated 1118.7% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $23.01.