What is Apple Inc. (AAPL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Apple Inc. (AAPL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Apple Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Apple Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Consumer Electronics) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Apple Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Apple Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Apple Inc. (AAPL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Apple Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAAPL

AAPL

Apple Inc.Technology / Consumer ElectronicsINTACT

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allows customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Share Price

$332.27

52W: $229.02 - $344.57

DCF Fair Value

$219.22

-51.6% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

38.1x

ROIC

24.5%

Operating Margin

32.6%

FCF Yield

2.2%

Debt / Equity

0.78x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

2.99

Market Cap

$4849.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($219.22)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$219.22

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$164.42

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($219.22) 25% MOS Buy Target ($164.42) Revised Graham ($263.78) Graham Number ($38.00)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$332.27

DCF Fair Value

$218.93

-51.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$107,722M

$100M$107,722M (Reported)$269,305M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)16.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$21,900M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1314.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$1902.5B

Implied Enterprise Value

$3217.0B

Implied Equity Value

$3195.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$125,281	$145,701	$169,451	$197,071	$229,194	$239,508	$250,285	$261,548	$273,318	$285,617
Present Value (PV)	$114,936	$122,634	$130,847	$139,610	$148,960	$142,811	$136,915	$131,262	$125,843	$120,648

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-774.4% Premium

$38.00

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $8.72BVPS: $7.36

Revised Graham Formula-26% Premium

$263.78

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.1% Yield

$7.01 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $102.3BYield: 2.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

16.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $332.27, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 16.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AAPL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Apple Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 32.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Apple Inc. (AAPL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Apple Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Apple Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $219.22 per share compared to its current market price of $332.27. This represents an estimated 51.6% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $38.00.