What is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is NVIDIA Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

NVIDIA Corporation operates in the Technology sector (Semiconductors) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is NVIDIA Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

NVIDIA Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits NVIDIA Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksNVDA

NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationTechnology / SemiconductorsINTACT

NVIDIA Corporation operates as a data center scale AI infrastructure company in the United States, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Compute & Networking, and Graphics segments. The Compute & Networking segment provides data center accelerated computing and networking platforms and artificial intelligence solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive markets. It sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system integrators and distributors, independent software vendors, cloud service providers, add-in board manufacturers, distributors, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, and other ecosystem participants. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Share Price

$223.67

52W: $164.27 - $236.54

DCF Fair Value

$56.28

-297.4% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

28.3x

ROIC

49.7%

Operating Margin

66.2%

FCF Yield

0.8%

Debt / Equity

0.17x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.96

Market Cap

$5401B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($56.28)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$56.28

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$42.21

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($56.28) 25% MOS Buy Target ($42.21) Revised Graham ($278.80) Graham Number ($41.06)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$223.67

DCF Fair Value

$56.28

-297.5% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$41,810M

$100M$41,810M (Reported)$104,525M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$23,600M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$541.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$794.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$1335.3B

Implied Equity Value

$1358.9B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$49,336	$58,216	$68,695	$81,060	$95,651	$99,955	$104,453	$109,154	$114,066	$119,199
Present Value (PV)	$45,262	$48,999	$53,045	$57,425	$62,167	$59,600	$57,140	$54,781	$52,519	$50,351

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-444.9% Premium

$41.05

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.90BVPS: $9.48

Revised Graham Formula+19.8%

$278.80

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.7% Yield

$1.64 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $39.7BYield: 0.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

30.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $223.67, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 30.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NVDA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for NVIDIA Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 66.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for NVIDIA Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, NVIDIA Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $56.28 per share compared to its current market price of $223.67. This represents an estimated 297.4% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $41.06.