TSN
Tyson Foods, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Farm ProductsINTACTTyson Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods. The company processes live fed cattle and hogs; fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, as well as case ready beef and pork, and fully cooked meats; raises and processes chickens into fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken products, including breaded chicken strips, nuggets, patties, and other ready-to-fix or fully cooked chicken parts; and supplies poultry breeding stock. It also manufactures and markets frozen and refrigerated food products, including ready-to-eat sandwiches, flame-grilled hamburgers, Philly steaks, pepperoni, bacon, breakfast sausage, turkey, lunchmeat, hot dogs, flour and corn tortilla products, appetizers, snacks, prepared meals, ethnic foods, side dishes, meat dishes, breadsticks, and processed meats under the Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells, Gallo Salame, ibp, and State Fair brands. The company sells its products through its sales staff to grocery retailers, grocery wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores, military commissaries, industrial food processing companies, chain restaurants or their distributors, live markets, international export companies, and domestic distributors who serve restaurants and food service operations, such as plant and school cafeterias, convenience stores, hospitals, and other vendors, as well as through independent brokers and trading companies. Tyson Foods, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Springdale, Arkansas.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Modest Value ($52.80 vs $54.52 DCF)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $1,254 | $1,321 | $1,391 | $1,464 | $1,542 | $1,611 | $1,684 | $1,760 | $1,839 | $1,921 |
| Present Value (PV) | $1,151 | $1,112 | $1,074 | $1,037 | $1,002 | $961 | $921 | $883 | $847 | $812 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
EXTREMELY LOW BARRIERAt the current price of $52.80, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -0.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil TSN with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Tyson Foods, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 2.7% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Tyson Foods, Inc..
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