WMT

Walmart Inc.Consumer Defensive / Discount StoresINTACT

Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites. It offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories. In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses. Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.

Share Price
$107.00
52W: $98.88 - $135.16
DCF Fair Value
$9.06
-1081% Premium
P/E (TTM)
38.8x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
3.5%
FCF Yield
0.8%
Debt / Equity
0.72x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
4.08
Market Cap
$851.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($9.06)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$9.06
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$6.80
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$107.00
DCF Fair Value
$9.03
-1084.9% Premium
$7,128M
$100M$7,128M (Reported)$50,000M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$63,600M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$58.6B
PV of Terminal Value
$76.6B
Implied Enterprise Value
$135.2B
Implied Equity Value
$71.6B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$7,506$7,904$8,322$8,764$9,228$9,643$10,077$10,531$11,005$11,500
Present Value (PV)$6,886$6,652$6,426$6,208$5,998$5,750$5,513$5,285$5,067$4,858

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-294.4% Premium
$27.13

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.76BVPS: $11.85
Revised Graham Formula-156.3% Premium
$41.75

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings0.8% Yield
$0.85 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $6.8BYield: 0.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER
29.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $107.00, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 29.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil WMT with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Walmart Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 3.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Walmart Inc. (WMT) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Walmart Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Walmart Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $9.06 per share compared to its current market price of $107.00. This represents an estimated 1081.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $27.12.

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