What is Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Philip Morris International Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Philip Morris International Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector (Tobacco) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Philip Morris International Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Philip Morris International Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Philip Morris International Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksPM

PM

Philip Morris International IncConsumer Defensive / TobaccoINTACT

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. It also offers wellness products. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Share Price

$202.74

52W: $142.11 - $210.45

DCF Fair Value

$209.82

+3.4%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

29.6x

ROIC

31.4%

Operating Margin

41.9%

FCF Yield

3.6%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.17

Market Cap

$316B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($202.74 vs $209.82 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$209.82

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$157.37

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($209.82) 25% MOS Buy Target ($157.37) Revised Graham ($241.75)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$202.74

DCF Fair Value

$209.80

+3.4%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$11,525M

$100M$11,525M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$41,000M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$149.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$218.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$368.1B

Implied Equity Value

$327.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$13,600	$16,047	$18,936	$22,344	$26,366	$27,553	$28,793	$30,088	$31,442	$32,857
Present Value (PV)	$12,477	$13,507	$14,622	$15,829	$17,136	$16,429	$15,751	$15,100	$14,477	$13,879

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $6.85BVPS: $-5.09

Revised Graham Formula+16.1%

$241.75

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.5% Yield

$7.02 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $10.9BYield: 3.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

9.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $202.74, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 9.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Philip Morris International Inc. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 41.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Philip Morris International Inc.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Philip Morris International Inc has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $209.82 per share compared to its current market price of $202.74. This represents an estimated 3.4% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.