PEP

Pepsico, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Beverages - Non-AlcoholicINTACT

PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods. It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products. The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.

Share Price
$135.94
52W: $123.47 - $171.48
DCF Fair Value
$114.11
-19.1% Premium
P/E (TTM)
17.1x
ROIC
12.7%
Operating Margin
16.9%
FCF Yield
4.9%
Debt / Equity
2.31x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.89
Market Cap
$185.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($114.11)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
—()
Period Range
$— - $—
DCF Fair Value
$114.11
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$85.58
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$135.94
DCF Fair Value
$114.30
-18.9% Premium
$9,044M
$100M$9,044M (Reported)$50,000M
8.5%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$40,700M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$83.6B
PV of Terminal Value
$112.9B
Implied Enterprise Value
$196.5B
Implied Equity Value
$155.8B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$9,813$10,647$11,552$12,534$13,599$14,211$14,851$15,519$16,217$16,947
Present Value (PV)$9,003$8,961$8,920$8,879$8,838$8,474$8,124$7,788$7,467$7,159

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-151.5% Premium
$54.06

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.95BVPS: $16.34
Revised Graham Formula+12%
$154.50

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings4.6% Yield
$6.30 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $8.6BYield: 4.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER
6.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $135.94, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 6.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PEP with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Pepsico, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 16.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Pepsico, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Pepsico, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $114.11 per share compared to its current market price of $135.94. This represents an estimated 19.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $54.07.

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