What is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Toll Brothers, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Residential Construction) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Toll Brothers, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Toll Brothers, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksTOL

TOL

Toll Brothers, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionINTACT

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.

Share Price

$134.41

52W: $123.15 - $168.36

DCF Fair Value

$105.14

-27.8% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

10.8x

ROIC

11%

Operating Margin

14.6%

FCF Yield

4.5%

Debt / Equity

0.34x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

4.61

Market Cap

$12.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($105.14)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$105.14

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$78.86

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($105.14) 25% MOS Buy Target ($78.86) Revised Graham ($221.83) Graham Number ($160.59)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$134.41

DCF Fair Value

$105.73

-27.1% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$558M

$100M$558M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)7.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$1,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$4.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$6.6B

Implied Enterprise Value

$11.5B

Implied Equity Value

$9.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$599	$642	$689	$740	$794	$829	$867	$906	$946	$989
Present Value (PV)	$549	$541	$532	$524	$516	$495	$474	$455	$436	$418

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+16.3%

$160.59

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $12.41BVPS: $92.36

Revised Graham Formula+39.4% MoS

$221.83

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4.3% Yield

$5.76 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.5BYield: 4.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

7.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $134.41, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil TOL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Toll Brothers, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 14.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Toll Brothers, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Toll Brothers, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $105.14 per share compared to its current market price of $134.41. This represents an estimated 27.8% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $160.59.