STZ

Constellation Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive / Beverages - BrewersINTACT

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

Share Price
$122.48
52W: $120.25 - $168.6
DCF Fair Value
$351.15
+65.1% MoS
P/E (TTM)
11.7x
ROIC
26.9%
Operating Margin
35.9%
FCF Yield
10.6%
Debt / Equity
1.23x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.14
Market Cap
$20.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$351.15
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$263.36
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$122.48
DCF Fair Value
$350.32
+65% MoS
$2,210M
$100M$2,210M (Reported)$50,000M
17.9%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$10,400M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$28.5B
PV of Terminal Value
$41.8B
Implied Enterprise Value
$70.3B
Implied Equity Value
$59.9B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$2,606$3,072$3,622$4,270$5,035$5,261$5,498$5,745$6,004$6,274
Present Value (PV)$2,390$2,586$2,797$3,025$3,272$3,137$3,008$2,883$2,764$2,650

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-14.8% Premium
$106.66

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.50BVPS: $48.15
Revised Graham Formula+64.1% MoS
$340.73

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings10% Yield
$12.28 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.1BYield: 10%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
-4.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $122.48, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -4.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil STZ with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Constellation Brands, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 35.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Constellation Brands, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Constellation Brands, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $351.15 per share compared to its current market price of $122.48. This represents an estimated 65.1% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $106.65.

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