What is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Altria Group, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Altria Group, Inc. operates in the Consumer Defensive sector (Tobacco) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Altria Group, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Altria Group, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Altria Group, Inc. (MO) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Altria Group, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMO

MO

Altria Group, Inc.Consumer Defensive / TobaccoINTACT

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Share Price

$69.10

52W: $54.7 - $77.06

DCF Fair Value

$159.13

+56.6% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

14.5x

ROIC

57.1%

Operating Margin

76.1%

FCF Yield

7.8%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.6

Market Cap

$115.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$159.13

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$119.35

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($159.13) 25% MOS Buy Target ($119.35) Revised Graham ($167.64)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$69.10

DCF Fair Value

$159.11

+56.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$9,015M

$100M$9,015M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$22,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$116.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$171.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$287.9B

Implied Equity Value

$265.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$10,638	$12,552	$14,812	$17,478	$20,624	$21,552	$22,522	$23,536	$24,595	$25,701
Present Value (PV)	$9,759	$10,565	$11,438	$12,382	$13,404	$12,851	$12,320	$11,812	$11,324	$10,857

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $4.75BVPS: $-1.60

Revised Graham Formula+58.8% MoS

$167.64

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings7.4% Yield

$5.13 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $8.6BYield: 7.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-0.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $69.10, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -0.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Altria Group, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 76.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Altria Group, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Altria Group, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $159.13 per share compared to its current market price of $69.10. This represents an estimated 56.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.