What is Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Marriott International, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Marriott International, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Lodging) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Marriott International, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Marriott International, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Marriott International, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMAR

MAR

Marriott InternationalConsumer Cyclical / LodgingINTACT

Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchising, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Greater China, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company operates properties under the JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizenM, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brands. It also operates residences, timeshares, and yachts. The company was formerly known as New Marriott MI, Inc. and changed its name to Marriott International, Inc. in May 1998. Marriott International, Inc. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

Share Price

$336.30

52W: $256.76 - $410.98

DCF Fair Value

$185.91

-80.9% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

34.8x

ROIC

49%

Operating Margin

65.3%

FCF Yield

2.3%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.09

Market Cap

$87.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($185.91)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$185.91

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$139.43

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($185.91) 25% MOS Buy Target ($139.43) Revised Graham ($341.27)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$336.30

DCF Fair Value

$185.79

-81% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,060M

$100M$2,060M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$17,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$26.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$39.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$65.8B

Implied Equity Value

$48.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,431	$2,868	$3,385	$3,994	$4,713	$4,925	$5,146	$5,378	$5,620	$5,873
Present Value (PV)	$2,230	$2,414	$2,614	$2,829	$3,063	$2,937	$2,815	$2,699	$2,588	$2,481

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $9.67BVPS: $-17.28

Revised Graham Formula+1.5%

$341.27

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.2% Yield

$7.50 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.0BYield: 2.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

15.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $336.30, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 15.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MAR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Marriott International. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 65.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Marriott International (MAR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Marriott International.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Marriott International has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $185.91 per share compared to its current market price of $336.30. This represents an estimated 80.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.