LKQ
LKQ CorporationConsumer Cyclical / Auto PartsINTACTLKQ Corporation engages in the distribution of replacement parts, components, and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles and specialty vehicle aftermarket products and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Wholesale-North America, Europe, Specialty, and Self Service. It offers bumper covers, automotive body panels, and lights, as well as paint and paint related consumables for refinishing vehicles; mechanical automotive parts and accessories; salvage products, including mechanical and collision parts comprising engines; transmissions; door assemblies; sheet metal products, such as trunk lids, fenders, and hoods; and lights and bumper assemblies. The company also provides scrap metal and other materials to metals recyclers; precious metals, such as catalytic converters; and brake pads, discs and sensors, clutches, steering and suspension products, filters, and oil and automotive fluids, as well as electrical products, including spark plugs and batteries. In addition, the company distributes recreational vehicle appliances and air conditioners, towing hitches, truck bed covers, vehicle protection products, marine electronics, cargo management products, wheels, tires, and suspension products. It serves collision and mechanical repair shops, new and used car dealerships, and retail customers. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, the Czech Republic, Austria, Poland, Slovakia, France, and other European countries. LKQ Corporation was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Antioch, Tennessee.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $762 | $803 | $845 | $890 | $937 | $979 | $1,024 | $1,070 | $1,118 | $1,168 |
| Present Value (PV) | $699 | $676 | $653 | $631 | $609 | $584 | $560 | $537 | $515 | $493 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
EXTREMELY LOW BARRIERAt the current price of $24.30, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -5.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil LKQ with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for LKQ Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 7% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for LKQ Corporation.
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