HSY

The Hershey CompanyConsumer Defensive / ConfectionersINTACT

The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. The company offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; protein bars; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, bars, snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and pretzels. It provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Sour Strips, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. The company markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. It exports its products in approximately 65 countries worldwide. The Hershey Company was founded in 1894 and is based in Hershey, Pennsylvania.

Share Price
$173.65
52W: $161.43 - $239.48
DCF Fair Value
$258.60
+32.8% MoS
P/E (TTM)
23.7x
ROIC
17.3%
Operating Margin
23.1%
FCF Yield
5%
Debt / Equity
1.3x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.6
Market Cap
$34.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$258.60
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$193.95
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$173.65
DCF Fair Value
$258.97
+32.9% MoS
$1,744M
$100M$1,744M (Reported)$50,000M
11.5%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$5,100M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$18.0B
PV of Terminal Value
$24.9B
Implied Enterprise Value
$42.9B
Implied Equity Value
$37.8B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$1,945$2,168$2,418$2,696$3,006$3,141$3,282$3,430$3,584$3,745
Present Value (PV)$1,784$1,825$1,867$1,910$1,953$1,873$1,795$1,721$1,650$1,582

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-183.9% Premium
$61.16

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.32BVPS: $22.71
Revised Graham Formula-0.3% Premium
$173.12

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings6.5% Yield
$11.35 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.7BYield: 6.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
1.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $173.65, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 1.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil HSY with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for The Hershey Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 23.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: The Hershey Company (HSY) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for The Hershey Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, The Hershey Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $258.60 per share compared to its current market price of $173.65. This represents an estimated 32.8% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $61.16.

Related Consumer Defensive Value Stocks & Sector Peers

Compare The Hershey Company with audited intrinsic valuation models across the Consumer Defensive sector.

View All S&P 500 Stocks