What is Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Expedia Group, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Expedia Group, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Travel Services) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Expedia Group, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Expedia Group, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Expedia Group, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksEXPE

EXPE

Expedia Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Travel ServicesINTACT

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through B2C, B2B, and trivago segments. The B2C segment includes Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand offers various travel products and services; Hotels.com for lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; and Orbitz, Travelocity, ebookers, and Wotif Group. The B2B segment provides various travel and non-travel companies including airlines, offline travel agents, online retailers, corporate travel management, and financial institutions who leverage its travel technology and tap into its diverse supply to augment their offerings and market Expedia Group rates and availabilities to its travelers. The trivago segment sends referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites. In addition, it provides brand advertising through online and offline channels, loyalty programs, mobile apps, and search engine marketing, as well as metasearch, social media, direct and personalized traveler communications on its websites, and through direct e-mail communication with its travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

Share Price

$280.77

52W: $185.34 - $342

DCF Fair Value

$692.90

+59.5% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

17.7x

ROIC

14.3%

Operating Margin

19%

FCF Yield

10.2%

Debt / Equity

2.3x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

4.05

Market Cap

$33.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$692.90

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$519.68

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($692.90) 25% MOS Buy Target ($519.68) Revised Graham ($332.10) Graham Number ($60.02)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$280.77

DCF Fair Value

$694.65

+59.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,434M

$100M$3,434M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$1,400M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$32.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$44.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$77.8B

Implied Equity Value

$79.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,760	$4,117	$4,509	$4,937	$5,406	$5,649	$5,903	$6,169	$6,447	$6,737
Present Value (PV)	$3,450	$3,466	$3,481	$3,497	$3,513	$3,368	$3,229	$3,096	$2,968	$2,846

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-367.9% Premium

$60.00

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $15.89BVPS: $10.07

Revised Graham Formula+15.5%

$332.10

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings10.2% Yield

$28.62 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $3.3BYield: 10.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-4.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $280.77, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -4.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil EXPE with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Expedia Group, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Expedia Group, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Expedia Group, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $692.90 per share compared to its current market price of $280.77. This represents an estimated 59.5% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $60.02.