What is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Restaurants) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDRI

DRI

Darden Restaurants, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / RestaurantsINTACT

Darden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada. The company operates under Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Yard House, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Bahama Breeze, The Capital Burger, Darden and Darden Restaurants brand names. Darden Restaurants, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is based in Orlando, Florida.

Share Price

$209.24

52W: $169 - $229.76

DCF Fair Value

$73.57

-184.4% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20x

ROIC

10.6%

Operating Margin

14.1%

FCF Yield

3.3%

Debt / Equity

3.65x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

3.53

Market Cap

$23.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($73.57)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$73.57

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$55.18

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($73.57) 25% MOS Buy Target ($55.18) Revised Graham ($182.79) Graham Number ($67.42)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$209.24

DCF Fair Value

$73.71

-183.9% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$791M

$100M$791M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)7.1%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$7,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$7.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$9.3B

Implied Enterprise Value

$16.2B

Implied Equity Value

$8.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$847	$907	$972	$1,041	$1,115	$1,165	$1,217	$1,272	$1,329	$1,389
Present Value (PV)	$777	$764	$750	$737	$724	$695	$666	$638	$612	$587

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-210.4% Premium

$67.42

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.44BVPS: $19.35

Revised Graham Formula-14.5% Premium

$182.79

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.1% Yield

$6.59 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.8BYield: 3.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

11.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $209.24, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DRI with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Darden Restaurants, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 14.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Darden Restaurants, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Darden Restaurants, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $73.57 per share compared to its current market price of $209.24. This represents an estimated 184.4% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $67.42.