What is D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is D.R. Horton, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

D.R. Horton, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Residential Construction) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is D.R. Horton, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

D.R. Horton, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits D.R. Horton, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDHI

DHI

D.R. Horton, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Residential ConstructionINTACT

D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 126 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company also constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes and duplexes. In addition, it provides mortgage financing and title agency services; and engages in the residential lot development business. Further, the company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells multi-family and single-family rental properties; conducts insurance-related operations; and owns water rights and other water-related assets, as well as non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements. It primarily serves homebuyers. D.R. Horton, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.

Share Price

$138.02

52W: $131.75 - $180.64

DCF Fair Value

$154.33

+10.6%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

13.2x

ROIC

9.8%

Operating Margin

13%

FCF Yield

6.3%

Debt / Equity

0.29x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

4.49

Market Cap

$38.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($138.02 vs $154.33 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$154.33

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$115.75

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($154.33) 25% MOS Buy Target ($115.75) Revised Graham ($175.97) Graham Number ($141.51)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$138.02

DCF Fair Value

$153.95

+10.3%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,414M

$100M$2,414M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$5,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$20.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$27.5B

Implied Enterprise Value

$48.2B

Implied Equity Value

$43.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,571	$2,738	$2,916	$3,106	$3,307	$3,456	$3,612	$3,774	$3,944	$4,122
Present Value (PV)	$2,359	$2,305	$2,252	$2,200	$2,150	$2,061	$1,976	$1,894	$1,816	$1,741

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+2.5%

$141.52

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.49BVPS: $84.85

Revised Graham Formula+21.6% MoS

$175.97

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.9% Yield

$8.19 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.3BYield: 5.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

2.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $138.02, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 2.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DHI with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for D.R. Horton, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for D.R. Horton, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, D.R. Horton, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $154.33 per share compared to its current market price of $138.02. This represents an estimated 10.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $141.51.