What is Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Booking Holdings Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Booking Holdings Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Travel Services) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Booking Holdings Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Booking Holdings Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Booking Holdings Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksBKNG

BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StConsumer Cyclical / Travel ServicesINTACT

Booking Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and traditional travel and restaurant reservations and related services in the United States, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; and Priceline, which provides discount travel reservations services, as well as online accommodation, flight, rental car reservation services, vacation packages, cruises, activity, and affiliate programs. It also operates Agoda that offers online accommodation reservation, flight, ground transportation, and attractions. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online meta-search service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations, as well as reservation management services to restaurants. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, payment facilitation, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants; and advertising services. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. Booking Holdings Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

Share Price

$173.43

52W: $150.14 - $225

DCF Fair Value

$303.77

+42.9% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

19.3x

ROIC

25.8%

Operating Margin

34.4%

FCF Yield

5.7%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.47

Market Cap

$134.4B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$303.77

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$227.83

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($303.77) 25% MOS Buy Target ($227.83) Revised Graham ($282.98)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$173.43

DCF Fair Value

$303.74

+42.9% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$7,726M

$100M$7,726M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)17.2%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$97.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$141.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$239.1B

Implied Equity Value

$235.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$9,055	$10,612	$12,438	$14,577	$17,084	$17,853	$18,656	$19,496	$20,373	$21,290
Present Value (PV)	$8,307	$8,932	$9,604	$10,327	$11,104	$10,645	$10,206	$9,784	$9,380	$8,993

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $9.00BVPS: $-14.23

Revised Graham Formula+38.7% MoS

$282.98

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings5.5% Yield

$9.47 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $7.3BYield: 5.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

3.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $173.43, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 3.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil BKNG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Booking Holdings Inc. Common St. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 34.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Booking Holdings Inc. Common St (BKNG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Booking Holdings Inc. Common St.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Booking Holdings Inc. Common St has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $303.77 per share compared to its current market price of $173.43. This represents an estimated 42.9% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.