What is AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is AutoZone, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

AutoZone, Inc. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector (Auto Parts) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is AutoZone, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

AutoZone, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits AutoZone, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAZO

AZO

AutoZone, Inc.Consumer Cyclical / Auto PartsINTACT

AutoZone, Inc. operates as a retailer and distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the United States, Mexico, and Brazil. The company offers a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans, and light duty trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products. It also provides A/C compressors, batteries and accessories, bearings, belts and hoses, calipers, chassis, clutches, CV axles, engines, fuel pumps, fuses, ignition and lighting products, mufflers, radiators, starters and alternators, thermostats, and water pumps, as well as tire repairs. In addition, the company provides maintenance products, such as antifreeze and windshield washer fluids; brake drums, rotors, shoes, and pads; brake and power steering fluids, and oil and fuel additives; oil and transmission fluids; oil, cabin, air, fuel, and transmission filters; oxygen sensors; paints and accessories; refrigerants and accessories; shock absorbers and struts; spark plugs and wires; and windshield wipers. Further, it offers air fresheners, cell phone accessories, drinks and snacks, floor mats and seat covers, interior and exterior accessories, mirrors, performance products, protectants and cleaners, sealants and adhesives, steering wheel covers, tools, vehicle entertainment systems, and wash and wax products, as well as towing services. Additionally, the company provides a sales program that offers commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products; sells automotive diagnostic, repair, collision, and shop management information software under the ALLDATA brand through alldata.com; Duralast branded products through duralastparts.com; and automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories, and non-automotive products through autozone.com. AutoZone, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Share Price

$2883.00

52W: $2876.25 - $4363.29

DCF Fair Value

$471.08

-512% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

19.8x

ROIC

14.3%

Operating Margin

19.1%

FCF Yield

1.9%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.71

Market Cap

$47.1B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($471.08)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$471.08

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$353.31

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($471.08) 25% MOS Buy Target ($353.31) Revised Graham ($3041.16)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$2883.00

DCF Fair Value

$479.89

-500.8% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$904M

$100M$904M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$12,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$8.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$11.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$20.5B

Implied Equity Value

$7.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$990	$1,084	$1,187	$1,300	$1,423	$1,487	$1,554	$1,624	$1,697	$1,773
Present Value (PV)	$908	$912	$917	$921	$925	$887	$850	$815	$781	$749

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $145.51BVPS: $-170.11

Revised Graham Formula+5.2%

$3041.16

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.9% Yield

$53.68 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 1.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

18.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $2883.00, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 18.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AZO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for AutoZone, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for AutoZone, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, AutoZone, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $471.08 per share compared to its current market price of $2883.00. This represents an estimated 512.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.