What is Matador Resources Company (MTDR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Matador Resources Company (MTDR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Matador Resources Company's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Matador Resources Company operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas E&P) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Matador Resources Company's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Matador Resources Company's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Matador Resources Company (MTDR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Matador Resources Company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMTDR

MTDR

Matador Resources CompanyEnergy / Oil & Gas E&PINTACT

Matador Resources Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. It operates through two segments, Exploration and Production; and Midstream. The company primarily holds interests in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. It also operates the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana. In addition, the company conducts midstream operations in support of its exploration, development, and production operations. Further, it provides natural gas processing and oil transportation services; and oil, natural gas, and produced water gathering services, as well as produced water disposal services to third parties, as well as sells natural gas to unaffiliated independent marketing companies and unaffiliated midstream companies. The company was formerly known as Matador Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Matador Resources Company in August 2011. Matador Resources Company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Share Price

$60.86

52W: $37.14 - $66.84

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

10.3x

ROIC

36.9%

Operating Margin

49.2%

FCF Yield

-12.1%

Debt / Equity

0.69x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.63

Market Cap

$7.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($208.93) Graham Number ($79.80)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$60.86

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-908M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$4,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$1.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$3.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-1.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$118	$139	$164	$194	$229	$239	$250	$261	$273	$285
Present Value (PV)	$108	$117	$127	$137	$149	$143	$137	$131	$126	$120

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+23.7% MoS

$79.80

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.92BVPS: $47.81

Revised Graham Formula+70.9% MoS

$208.93

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-11.4% Yield

$-6.96 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-0.9BYield: -11.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $60.86, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MTDR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Matador Resources Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 49.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Matador Resources Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Matador Resources Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $60.86. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $79.80.