What is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Exxon Mobil Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Integrated) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Exxon Mobil Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Exxon Mobil Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Exxon Mobil Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksXOM

XOM

ExxonMobil Holdings CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas IntegratedINTACT

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The company was formerly known as Exxon Mobil Corporation and changed its name to ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation in July 2026. ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Spring, Texas.

Share Price

$165.38

52W: $110.39 - $176.41

DCF Fair Value

$98.93

-67.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

21.3x

ROIC

11.9%

Operating Margin

15.9%

FCF Yield

Debt / Equity

0.16x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.86

Market Cap

$680B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($98.93)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$98.93

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$74.20

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($98.93) 25% MOS Buy Target ($74.20) Revised Graham ($145.30) Graham Number ($105.01)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$165.38

DCF Fair Value

$98.77

-67.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$20,671M

$100M$20,671M (Reported)$51,678M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)7.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$31,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$187.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$251.0B

Implied Enterprise Value

$437.9B

Implied Equity Value

$406.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$22,304	$24,066	$25,967	$28,019	$30,232	$31,593	$33,014	$34,500	$36,052	$37,675
Present Value (PV)	$20,462	$20,256	$20,051	$19,849	$19,649	$18,838	$18,060	$17,314	$16,600	$15,914

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-57.5% Premium

$105.01

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.77BVPS: $63.08

Revised Graham Formula-13.8% Premium

$145.30

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.9% Yield

$4.78 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $19.6BYield: 2.9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

12.2% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $165.38, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 12.2% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil XOM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 15.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $98.93 per share compared to its current market price of $165.38. This represents an estimated 67.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $105.01.