What is Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Match Group, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Match Group, Inc. operates in the Communication Services sector (Internet Content & Information) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Match Group, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Match Group, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Match Group, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMTCH

MTCH

Match Group, Inc.Communication Services / Internet Content & InformationINTACT

Match Group, Inc. provides digital technologies in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Tinder, Hinge, Evergreen and Emerging, and Match Group Asia. The company's portfolio of brands includes Tinder, Hinge, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Plenty Of Fish, Azar, BLK, and other brands, built to increase users' likelihood of connecting with others. It provides tailored services to meet the various preferences of its users. Match Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Share Price

$42.76

52W: $28.81 - $43.47

DCF Fair Value

$98.83

+56.7% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

15.2x

ROIC

21.6%

Operating Margin

28.8%

FCF Yield

9.5%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

9/9

Altman Z-Score

3.25

Market Cap

$9.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$98.83

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$74.12

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($98.83) 25% MOS Buy Target ($74.12) Revised Graham ($77.81)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$42.76

DCF Fair Value

$98.57

+56.6% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$931M

$100M$931M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)14.4%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$10.6B

PV of Terminal Value

$15.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$25.8B

Implied Equity Value

$22.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,065	$1,218	$1,394	$1,595	$1,824	$1,906	$1,992	$2,082	$2,175	$2,273
Present Value (PV)	$977	$1,026	$1,076	$1,130	$1,186	$1,137	$1,090	$1,045	$1,002	$960

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $2.82BVPS: $-1.03

Revised Graham Formula+45% MoS

$77.81

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings9% Yield

$3.85 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 9%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-2.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $42.76, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -2.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MTCH with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Match Group, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 28.8% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Match Group, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Match Group, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $98.83 per share compared to its current market price of $42.76. This represents an estimated 56.7% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.