What is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Moderna, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Moderna, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector (Biotechnology) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Moderna, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Moderna, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Moderna, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMRNA

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.Healthcare / BiotechnologyINTACT

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Share Price

$148.54

52W: $22.28 - $176.66

DCF Fair Value

$23.88

-522% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

20x

ROIC

Operating Margin

-557.9%

FCF Yield

0.5%

Debt / Equity

0.19x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

2.85

Market Cap

$59.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($23.88)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$23.88

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$17.91

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($23.88) 25% MOS Buy Target ($17.91)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$148.54

DCF Fair Value

$23.74

-525.6% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$299M

$100M$299M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$3,800M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$2.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$3.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$5.7B

Implied Equity Value

$9.5B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$315	$332	$349	$368	$387	$405	$423	$442	$462	$482
Present Value (PV)	$289	$279	$270	$260	$252	$241	$231	$222	$213	$204

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $-7.98BVPS: $16.95

Revised Graham Formula

N/A

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.5% Yield

$0.71 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.3BYield: 0.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

37.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $148.54, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 37.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MRNA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Moderna, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin -557.9% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Moderna, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Moderna, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $23.88 per share compared to its current market price of $148.54. This represents an estimated 522.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.