UNH

UnitedHealth Group IncorporatedHealthcare / Healthcare PlansINTACT

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-sized employers, small businesses, and individuals; Medicaid plans, including Temporary Assistance to Needy Families; Children's Health Insurance Programs; Dual SNPs; Long-Term Services and Supports; Aged, Blind and Disabled; and other federal, state, and community health care programs. and health care benefits products and services to state programs caring for the economically disadvantaged, medically underserved, and those without the benefit of employer-funded health care coverage. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was founded in 1974 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Share Price
$379.09
52W: $255.97 - $461.62
DCF Fair Value
$467.17
+18.9%
P/E (TTM)
24.9x
ROIC
8%
Operating Margin
7.1%
FCF Yield
7.1%
Debt / Equity
0.69x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
5.1
Market Cap
$340.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($379.09 vs $467.17 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$467.17
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$350.38
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$379.09
DCF Fair Value
$466.29
+18.7%
$24,272M
$100M$24,272M (Reported)$60,680M
5.3%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$41,800M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$199.7B
PV of Terminal Value
$260.8B
Implied Enterprise Value
$460.5B
Implied Equity Value
$418.7B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$25,558$26,913$28,339$29,841$31,423$32,837$34,315$35,859$37,472$39,159
Present Value (PV)$23,448$22,652$21,883$21,140$20,423$19,580$18,771$17,996$17,253$16,541

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-96.5% Premium
$192.88

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $15.20BVPS: $108.78
Revised Graham Formula-64.9% Premium
$229.90

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings6.8% Yield
$25.68 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $23.1BYield: 6.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER
0.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $379.09, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil UNH with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 7.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $467.17 per share compared to its current market price of $379.09. This represents an estimated 18.9% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $192.88.

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