LLY

Eli Lilly and CompanyHealthcare / Drug Manufacturers - GeneralINTACT

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease. The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases; and BioArctic AB (publ) for new treatment. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Share Price
$1122.63
52W: $712.05 - $1292.65
DCF Fair Value
$344.93
-225.5% Premium
P/E (TTM)
37.7x
ROIC
40.7%
Operating Margin
54.2%
FCF Yield
1.1%
Debt / Equity
1.62x
Piotroski Score
6/9
Altman Z-Score
3.02
Market Cap
$1000.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($344.93)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$344.93
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$258.70
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$1122.63
DCF Fair Value
$345.02
-225.4% Premium
$11,066M
$100M$11,066M (Reported)$50,000M
18.0%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$46,000M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$143.3B
PV of Terminal Value
$210.1B
Implied Enterprise Value
$353.4B
Implied Equity Value
$307.4B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$13,058$15,408$18,182$21,455$25,316$26,456$27,646$28,890$30,190$31,549
Present Value (PV)$11,980$12,969$14,040$15,199$16,454$15,775$15,123$14,499$13,900$13,327

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-603.5% Premium
$159.57

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $29.78BVPS: $38.00
Revised Graham Formula-6.8% Premium
$1050.99

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings1.1% Yield
$11.80 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $10.5BYield: 1.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER
25.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $1122.63, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 25.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil LLY with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Eli Lilly and Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 54.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Eli Lilly and Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Eli Lilly and Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $344.93 per share compared to its current market price of $1122.63. This represents an estimated 225.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $159.57.

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