MDT

Medtronic plc.Healthcare / Medical DevicesINTACT

Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally. It operates through three segments: The Cardiovascular Portfolio, Neuroscience Portfolio, and Medical Surgical Portfolio. The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, left atrial appendage exclusion systems, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) systems and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and endovenous products. The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name. This segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists, and energy surgical instruments. The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat diseases and conditions, and patient monitoring and airway management products, as well as insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems, and sensors. Medtronic plc was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.

Share Price
$90.44
52W: $73.31 - $106.33
DCF Fair Value
$81.40
-11.1% Premium
P/E (TTM)
22.3x
ROIC
14.5%
Operating Margin
19.3%
FCF Yield
4.7%
Debt / Equity
0.55x
Piotroski Score
9/9
Altman Z-Score
3.5
Market Cap
$115.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($81.40)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$81.40
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$61.05
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$90.44
DCF Fair Value
$81.49
-11% Premium
$5,412M
$100M$5,412M (Reported)$50,000M
9.7%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$19,400M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$52.3B
PV of Terminal Value
$71.4B
Implied Enterprise Value
$123.6B
Implied Equity Value
$104.2B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$5,937$6,513$7,145$7,838$8,598$8,985$9,389$9,812$10,253$10,715
Present Value (PV)$5,447$5,482$5,517$5,552$5,588$5,357$5,136$4,924$4,721$4,526

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-51.1% Premium
$59.87

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.06BVPS: $39.24
Revised Graham Formula-5.7% Premium
$85.60

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings4.4% Yield
$4.02 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $5.1BYield: 4.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER
6.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $90.44, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 6.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MDT with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Medtronic plc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Medtronic plc. (MDT) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Medtronic plc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Medtronic plc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $81.40 per share compared to its current market price of $90.44. This represents an estimated 11.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $59.87.

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