HUM
Humana Inc.Healthcare / Healthcare PlansINTACTHumana Inc. provides medical and specialty insurance products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment offers individual Medicare Advantage products, including health insurance benefits, including wellness programs, chronic care management, and care coordination; individual Medicare stand-alone prescription drug products (PDP); group Medicare advantage and Medicare stand-alone PDP; Medicare supplements; specialty and ancillary insurance comprising dental, vision, life and disability; and administrative services to arrange health care services for active-duty and retired military personnel and dependents, as well as pharmacy benefit managers. Its CenterWell segment operates full-service, value-based senior focused primary care centers under the Conviva Senior Primary Care and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands; a management services organization; CenterWell Home Health, a home health provider; and OneHome, which manages post-acute patient needs, as well as provides pharmacy and hospice solutions. The company was formerly known as Extendicare Inc. and changed its name to Humana Inc. in April 1974. Humana Inc. was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor
Overvalued vs DCF ($383.14)Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.
2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench
Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.
| Year | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 | Yr 6 | Yr 7 | Yr 8 | Yr 9 | Yr 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected FCF ($M) | $2,044 | $2,152 | $2,266 | $2,386 | $2,513 | $2,626 | $2,744 | $2,868 | $2,997 | $3,131 |
| Present Value (PV) | $1,875 | $1,811 | $1,750 | $1,691 | $1,633 | $1,566 | $1,501 | $1,439 | $1,380 | $1,323 |
Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models
Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.
Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.
Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.
True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.
Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation
FAIR BARRIERAt the current price of $410.28, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 8.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.
Surveil HUM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules
Set non-negotiable floor rules for Humana Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.
ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x
Current Margin 3.5% • Floor > 10%
Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x
Frequently Asked Questions: Humana Inc. (HUM) Intrinsic Valuation
Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Humana Inc..
Related Healthcare Value Stocks & Sector Peers
Compare Humana Inc. with audited intrinsic valuation models across the Healthcare sector.
Eli Lilly and Company
Drug Manufacturers - General
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
Healthcare Plans
Johnson & Johnson
Drug Manufacturers - General
AbbVie Inc.
Drug Manufacturers - General
Merck & Co., Inc.
Drug Manufacturers - General
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
Diagnostics & Research