What is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector (Medical Care Facilities) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksHCA

HCA

HCA Healthcare, Inc.Healthcare / Medical Care FacilitiesINTACT

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

Share Price

$428.38

52W: $353.99 - $556.52

DCF Fair Value

$125.22

-242.1% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

14.4x

ROIC

11.4%

Operating Margin

15.2%

FCF Yield

3.9%

Debt / Equity

0.65x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.43

Market Cap

$95B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($125.22)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$125.22

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$93.92

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($125.22) 25% MOS Buy Target ($93.92) Revised Graham ($543.97)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$428.38

DCF Fair Value

$124.78

-243.3% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,738M

$100M$3,738M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)7.6%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$50,500M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$33.4B

PV of Terminal Value

$44.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$78.2B

Implied Equity Value

$27.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$4,022	$4,328	$4,657	$5,011	$5,391	$5,634	$5,888	$6,152	$6,429	$6,719
Present Value (PV)	$3,690	$3,643	$3,596	$3,550	$3,504	$3,359	$3,221	$3,088	$2,960	$2,838

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number

N/A

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

Not calculable here: the formula takes a square root of EPS × book value, so it breaks down when trailing earnings (or book value) are negative. A company losing money has no defensive-investor price under Graham's classic test — lean on the DCF and solvency scores instead.

EPS: $29.82BVPS: $-30.47

Revised Graham Formula+21.2% MoS

$543.97

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3.7% Yield

$16.00 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $3.6BYield: 3.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

8.8% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $428.38, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 8.8% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil HCA with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for HCA Healthcare, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 15.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for HCA Healthcare, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, HCA Healthcare, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $125.22 per share compared to its current market price of $428.38. This represents an estimated 242.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $N/A.