What is Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Devon Energy Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Devon Energy Corporation operates in the Energy sector (Oil & Gas E&P) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Devon Energy Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Devon Energy Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Devon Energy Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksDVN

DVN

Devon Energy CorporationEnergy / Oil & Gas E&PINTACT

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company operates in Delaware Basin located in southeast New Mexico and west Texas, Eagle Ford located in North America, Anadarko Basin located in western Oklahoma, Williston Basin located in North Dakota, and Powder River Basin located in Wyoming. Devon Energy Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$49.82

52W: $31.47 - $52.71

DCF Fair Value

$12.79

-289.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

10.8x

ROIC

30.8%

Operating Margin

41.1%

FCF Yield

1.4%

Debt / Equity

0.28x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.87

Market Cap

$54.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($12.79)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$12.79

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$9.59

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($12.79) 25% MOS Buy Target ($9.59) Revised Graham ($162.34) Graham Number ($61.30)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$49.82

DCF Fair Value

$12.82

-288.5% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$783M

$100M$783M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$10,900M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$10.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$14.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$25.0B

Implied Equity Value

$14.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$924	$1,090	$1,286	$1,518	$1,791	$1,872	$1,956	$2,044	$2,136	$2,232
Present Value (PV)	$848	$918	$993	$1,075	$1,164	$1,116	$1,070	$1,026	$984	$943

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+18.7%

$61.30

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $4.60BVPS: $36.31

Revised Graham Formula+69.3% MoS

$162.34

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.4% Yield

$0.68 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.7BYield: 1.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

22.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $49.82, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 22.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil DVN with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Devon Energy Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 41.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Devon Energy Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Devon Energy Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $12.79 per share compared to its current market price of $49.82. This represents an estimated 289.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $61.30.