What is Amgen Inc. (AMGN) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Amgen Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Amgen Inc. operates in the Healthcare sector (Drug Manufacturers - General) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Amgen Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Amgen Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Amgen Inc. (AMGN) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Amgen Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAMGN

AMGN

Amgen Inc.Healthcare / Drug Manufacturers - GeneralINTACT

Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including PROLIA, REPATHA, OTEZLA, ENBREL, EVENITY, XGEVA, TEPEZZA, BLINCYTO, NPLATE, TEZSPIRE, KYPROLIS, ARANESP, KRYSTEXXA AND VECTIBIX, MVASI, PAVBLU, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA/IMDYLLTRA, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TAVNEOS, NEULASTA, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, RAVICTI, PARSABIV, AIMOVIG, WEZLANA/WEZENLA, AND PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies. It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors. The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; BEONE MEDICINES LTD. to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California.

Share Price

$379.49

52W: $269.77 - $447.03

DCF Fair Value

$425.31

+10.8%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

23.6x

ROIC

26.6%

Operating Margin

35.5%

FCF Yield

4.2%

Debt / Equity

4.9x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.3

Market Cap

$205.2B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($379.49 vs $425.31 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$425.31

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$318.98

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($425.31) 25% MOS Buy Target ($318.98) Revised Graham ($518.02) Graham Number ($88.50)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$379.49

DCF Fair Value

$424.38

+10.6%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$8,646M

$100M$8,646M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)17.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$43,300M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$110.8B

PV of Terminal Value

$162.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$272.9B

Implied Equity Value

$229.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$10,176	$11,978	$14,098	$16,593	$19,530	$20,409	$21,327	$22,287	$23,290	$24,338
Present Value (PV)	$9,336	$10,081	$10,886	$11,755	$12,693	$12,169	$11,667	$11,185	$10,723	$10,280

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-328.8% Premium

$88.50

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $16.10BVPS: $21.62

Revised Graham Formula+26.7% MoS

$518.02

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings4% Yield

$15.18 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $8.2BYield: 4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

7.9% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $379.49, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 7.9% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AMGN with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Amgen Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 35.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Amgen Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Amgen Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $425.31 per share compared to its current market price of $379.49. This represents an estimated 10.8% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $88.50.