What is Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Seagate Technology Holdings plc's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc operates in the Technology sector (Computer Hardware) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Seagate Technology Holdings plc's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Seagate Technology Holdings plc's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Seagate Technology Holdings plc's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksSTX

STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCTechnology / Computer HardwareINTACT

Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in providing data storage solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers External and internal hard drives; external and internal solid-state drives (SSDs); enterprise hard drives and SSDs; data storage systems; network attached storage (NAS) hard drives; video and analytics hard drives; and hyperscale and cloud solution. It offers its products for Healthcare, Media & Entertainment, Surveillance & Security, and telecommunication industry. The company sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.

Share Price

$644.21

52W: $217.67 - $1145

DCF Fair Value

$263.38

-144.6% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

46.3x

ROIC

32.3%

Operating Margin

43.1%

FCF Yield

1.3%

Debt / Equity

1.8x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

Market Cap

$146.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($263.38)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$263.38

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$197.54

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($263.38) 25% MOS Buy Target ($197.54) Revised Graham ($490.55) Graham Number ($54.67)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$644.21

DCF Fair Value

$263.81

-144.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,944M

$100M$1,944M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$2,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$25.2B

PV of Terminal Value

$36.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$62.1B

Implied Equity Value

$59.9B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,294	$2,707	$3,194	$3,769	$4,447	$4,648	$4,857	$5,075	$5,304	$5,542
Present Value (PV)	$2,105	$2,278	$2,466	$2,670	$2,891	$2,771	$2,657	$2,547	$2,442	$2,341

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-1078.1% Premium

$54.68

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $13.90BVPS: $9.56

Revised Graham Formula-31.3% Premium

$490.55

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.3% Yield

$8.14 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.8BYield: 1.3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

23.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $644.21, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 23.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil STX with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Seagate Technology Holdings PLC. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 43.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Seagate Technology Holdings PLC.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $263.38 per share compared to its current market price of $644.21. This represents an estimated 144.6% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $54.67.