What is Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Motorola Solutions, Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Communication Equipment) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksMSI

MSI

Motorola Solutions, Inc.Technology / Communication EquipmentINTACT

Motorola Solutions, Inc. provides public safety, government, defense, and enterprise security solutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Products and Systems Integration, and Software and Services. The Products and Systems Integration segment offers a portfolio of infrastructure, devices, accessories, and the implementation and integration of systems, devices, software, and applications for government, including defense, public safety, and enterprise customers who operate private communications systems and video security solutions, as well as manage a mobile workforce. This segment also provides mission critical networks, and video security and access control technologies, including two-way portable and vehicle-mounted radios, video cameras, and accessories; communications network core and central processing software, base stations, consoles, and repeaters; and video analytics, network video management hardware and software, and access control solutions. The Software and Services segment offers public safety and enterprise command center, unified communications applications, mobile video equipment, and video software solutions; repair, technical support, and maintenance services; and monitoring, software updates, and cybersecurity services to government, public safety, and commercial communications networks. It serves hospitality; manufacturing; military and defence; police; air transportation; fire and rescue; stadium; emergency medical services; mining; oil and gas; transportation and logistics; utilities; education; retail; and healthcare industries. The company was formerly known as Motorola, Inc. and changed its name to Motorola Solutions, Inc. in January 2011. Motorola Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price

$468.94

52W: $359.36 - $494.85

DCF Fair Value

$267.53

-75.3% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

36.9x

ROIC

20.5%

Operating Margin

27.4%

FCF Yield

2.6%

Debt / Equity

3.58x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.14

Market Cap

$77.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($267.53)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$267.53

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$200.65

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($267.53) 25% MOS Buy Target ($200.65) Revised Graham ($337.87) Graham Number ($67.95)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$468.94

DCF Fair Value

$268.82

-74.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,979M

$100M$1,979M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)13.7%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$8,900M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$22.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$31.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$53.3B

Implied Equity Value

$44.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,250	$2,558	$2,909	$3,307	$3,761	$3,930	$4,107	$4,291	$4,484	$4,686
Present Value (PV)	$2,064	$2,153	$2,246	$2,343	$2,444	$2,343	$2,246	$2,154	$2,065	$1,980

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-590% Premium

$67.96

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $12.71BVPS: $16.15

Revised Graham Formula-38.8% Premium

$337.87

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.4% Yield

$11.39 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.9BYield: 2.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

14.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $468.94, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 14.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil MSI with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Motorola Solutions, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 27.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Motorola Solutions, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Motorola Solutions, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $267.53 per share compared to its current market price of $468.94. This represents an estimated 75.3% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $67.95.