What is First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is First Solar, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

First Solar, Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Solar) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is First Solar, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

First Solar, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits First Solar, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksFSLR

FSLR

First Solar, Inc.Technology / SolarINTACT

First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, India, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with thin film semiconductor technology that provides conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules. It also designs, manufactures, and sells cadmium telluride solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity. The company serves system developers, independent power producers, utilities, commercial and industrial companies, large corporate energy buyers, and other system owners and operators. The company was formerly known as First Solar Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to First Solar, Inc. in 2006. First Solar, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Share Price

$209.94

52W: $182.99 - $320.95

DCF Fair Value

$489.44

+57.1% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

12.7x

ROIC

32%

Operating Margin

42.6%

FCF Yield

7.1%

Debt / Equity

0.02x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.56

Market Cap

$22.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$489.44

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$367.08

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($489.44) 25% MOS Buy Target ($367.08) Revised Graham ($584.08) Graham Number ($189.10)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$209.94

DCF Fair Value

$491.28

+57.3% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,599M

$100M$1,599M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$1,500M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$20.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$30.4B

Implied Enterprise Value

$51.1B

Implied Equity Value

$52.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,887	$2,226	$2,627	$3,100	$3,658	$3,823	$3,995	$4,175	$4,362	$4,559
Present Value (PV)	$1,731	$1,874	$2,029	$2,196	$2,378	$2,279	$2,185	$2,095	$2,009	$1,926

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-11% Premium

$189.10

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $16.55BVPS: $96.03

Revised Graham Formula+64.1% MoS

$584.08

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6.8% Yield

$14.20 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.5BYield: 6.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

1.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $209.94, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 1.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil FSLR with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for First Solar, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 42.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for First Solar, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, First Solar, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $489.44 per share compared to its current market price of $209.94. This represents an estimated 57.1% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $189.10.