What is Exelon Corporation (EXC) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Exelon Corporation (EXC) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Exelon Corporation's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Exelon Corporation operates in the Utilities sector (Utilities - Regulated Electric) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Exelon Corporation's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Exelon Corporation's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Exelon Corporation (EXC) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Exelon Corporation's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksEXC

EXC

Exelon CorporationUtilities / Utilities - Regulated ElectricINTACT

Exelon Corporation, a utility services holding company, engages in the energy distribution and transmission businesses in the United States. The company is involved in the purchase and regulated retail sale of electricity and natural gas; transmission and distribution of electricity; and distribution of natural gas to retail customers. It serves residential, commercial, industrial, and public authorities and electric railroads customers. Exelon Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price

$43.29

52W: $42.58 - $50.65

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

0% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

15.9x

ROIC

12.5%

Operating Margin

16.6%

FCF Yield

-6%

Debt / Equity

1.77x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

2.34

Market Cap

$44.6B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Fair Value Range

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

Valuation Overlays:0 Revised Graham ($52.36) Graham Number ($41.96)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$43.29

DCF Fair Value

$0.00

-100% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$100M

$100M$-2,685M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)8.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$50,900M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$0.9B

PV of Terminal Value

$1.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$2.2B

Implied Equity Value

$-48.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$108	$117	$127	$138	$149	$156	$163	$170	$178	$186
Present Value (PV)	$99	$99	$98	$97	$97	$93	$89	$85	$82	$78

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-3.2% Premium

$41.96

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.72BVPS: $28.77

Revised Graham Formula+17.3%

$52.36

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings-5.7% Yield

$-2.48 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $-2.6BYield: -5.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $43.29, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil EXC with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Exelon Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 16.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Exelon Corporation (EXC) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Exelon Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Exelon Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.00 per share compared to its current market price of $43.29. This represents an estimated 0.0% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $41.96.