StocksCSCO

CSCO

Cisco Systems, Inc.Technology / Communication EquipmentINTACT

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and sells technologies to power, help, secure, and draw insights from the internet in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company provides data center switching; network security, identity and access management, and secure access service edge; identity and agentic security solutions; interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering connectivity to campus, data center, and branch networks; WEBEX suite, collaboration devices, and contact center; communication platform as a service software, including perpetual licenses, subscription arrangements, and hardware solutions; network assurance and observability suite; accelerated issue resolution, software support, and hardware replacement; professional services, such as planning, design, implementation, and high-value consulting; service and support packages, financing, and managed network services; and regional, national, and international wireline carriers, webscale products, internet, and cable. It also provides wireless products, including indoor and outdoor coverage designed for seamless roaming use of voice, video, and data applications; end-to-end collaboration solutions through cloud, on-premise, or within hybrid cloud environments. In addition, it offers technical support services. The company serves businesses, public institutions, governments, and service providers. It sells its products and services directly, through systems integrators, service providers, and other thirdy-party resellers, and distributors. Cisco Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Share Price
$111.56
52W: $66.13 - $130.37
DCF Fair Value
$72.97
-52.9% Premium
P/E (TTM)
33.5x
ROIC
20.8%
Operating Margin
27.7%
FCF Yield
2.5%
Debt / Equity
0.62x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.1
Market Cap
$439.8B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($72.97)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$72.97
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$54.73
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$111.56
DCF Fair Value
$73.06
-52.7% Premium
$11,183M
$100M$11,183M (Reported)$50,000M
13.9%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$15,300M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$125.4B
PV of Terminal Value
$178.0B
Implied Enterprise Value
$303.4B
Implied Equity Value
$288.1B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$12,737$14,508$16,525$18,821$21,438$22,402$23,410$24,464$25,565$26,715
Present Value (PV)$11,686$12,211$12,760$13,334$13,933$13,358$12,806$12,278$11,771$11,285

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-261% Premium
$30.90

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $3.33BVPS: $12.74
Revised Graham Formula-24.7% Premium
$89.44

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings2.4% Yield
$2.69 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $10.6BYield: 2.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
14.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $111.56, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 14.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil CSCO with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Cisco Systems, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 27.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Cisco Systems, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Cisco Systems, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $72.97 per share compared to its current market price of $111.56. This represents an estimated 52.9% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $30.90.

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