What is Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Applied Materials, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Applied Materials, Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Semiconductor Equipment) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Applied Materials, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Applied Materials, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Applied Materials, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksAMAT

AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Technology / Semiconductor Equipment & MaterialsINTACT

Applied Materials, Inc. provides materials engineering solutions, equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor and related industries in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Semiconductor Systems and Applied Global Services (AGS) segments. The Semiconductor Systems segment includes semiconductor capital equipment to enable materials engineering steps, including etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation. The AGS segment offers integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, and 200 millimeter and other equipment and factory automation software for semiconductor and other products. It serves manufacturers of semiconductor wafers and chips, and other electronic devices. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Share Price

$461.86

52W: $167.18 - $739.67

DCF Fair Value

$120.72

-282.6% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

39.9x

ROIC

25.3%

Operating Margin

33.7%

FCF Yield

0.8%

Debt / Equity

0.29x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.96

Market Cap

$366.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($120.72)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$120.72

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$90.54

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($120.72) 25% MOS Buy Target ($90.54) Revised Graham ($358.79) Graham Number ($91.72)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$461.86

DCF Fair Value

$120.83

-282.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,075M

$100M$3,075M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)16.9%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$1,900M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$38.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$55.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$94.0B

Implied Equity Value

$95.9B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,595	$4,202	$4,912	$5,743	$6,713	$7,015	$7,331	$7,661	$8,005	$8,366
Present Value (PV)	$3,298	$3,537	$3,793	$4,068	$4,363	$4,183	$4,010	$3,845	$3,686	$3,534

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-403.6% Premium

$91.72

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $11.58BVPS: $32.29

Revised Graham Formula-28.7% Premium

$358.79

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings0.8% Yield

$3.68 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.9BYield: 0.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

SPECULATIVE BARRIER

29.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $461.86, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 29.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil AMAT with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Applied Materials, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 33.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Applied Materials, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Applied Materials, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $120.72 per share compared to its current market price of $461.86. This represents an estimated 282.6% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $91.72.