What is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Autodesk, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Autodesk, Inc. operates in the Technology sector (Software - Application) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Autodesk, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Autodesk, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Autodesk, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksADSK

ADSK

Autodesk, Inc.Technology / Software - ApplicationINTACT

Autodesk, Inc. engages in the provision of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution; Autodesk Build, a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and jobsite; Revit, a software built for building information modeling to help professionals design, build, and maintain energy-efficient buildings; Autodesk BIM Collaborate Pro, cloud-based design collaboration and design management software; BuildingConnected, a SaaS preconstruction solution; and Tandem, a cloud-based platform that transforms the built asset lifecycle. It also provides AutoCAD software, a customizable and extensible CAD application for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; Fusion, a 3D CAD, computer-aided manufacturing, and computer-aided engineering tool; Inventor, a software solution that offers a set of tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; product design and manufacturing collection tools; and Vault, a data management software for managing data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration. The company offers Flow Production Tracking, a cloud-based production management software; Maya software that offers 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions for film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals; Media and Entertainment Collection that offers end-to-end creative tools for entertainment creation; and 3ds Max software, which provides 3D modeling, animation, and rendering solutions. It sells its products and services through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Share Price

$213.00

52W: $185.5 - $326.71

DCF Fair Value

$423.64

+49.7% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

27.6x

ROIC

21.9%

Operating Margin

29.2%

FCF Yield

7.1%

Debt / Equity

1.1x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.26

Market Cap

$44.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$423.64

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$317.73

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($423.64) 25% MOS Buy Target ($317.73) Revised Graham ($215.13) Graham Number ($53.03)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$213.00

DCF Fair Value

$423.88

+49.8% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$3,157M

$100M$3,157M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)14.6%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)-$500M (Net Cash)

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$36.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$51.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$88.1B

Implied Equity Value

$88.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$3,618	$4,146	$4,751	$5,445	$6,240	$6,521	$6,814	$7,121	$7,442	$7,776
Present Value (PV)	$3,319	$3,490	$3,669	$3,858	$4,056	$3,888	$3,728	$3,574	$3,426	$3,285

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-301.7% Premium

$53.03

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.72BVPS: $16.19

Revised Graham Formula+1%

$215.13

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6.7% Yield

$14.35 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $3.0BYield: 6.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

1.0% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $213.00, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 1.0% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ADSK with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Autodesk, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 29.2% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Autodesk, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Autodesk, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $423.64 per share compared to its current market price of $213.00. This represents an estimated 49.7% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $53.03.