What is Waste Management, Inc. (WM) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Waste Management, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Waste Management, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Waste Management) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Waste Management, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Waste Management, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Waste Management, Inc. (WM) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Waste Management, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksWM

WM

Waste Management, Inc.Industrials / Waste ManagementINTACT

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Share Price

$213.46

52W: $194.11 - $248.13

DCF Fair Value

$76.21

-180.1% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

30.2x

ROIC

14.3%

Operating Margin

19%

FCF Yield

2.8%

Debt / Equity

2.35x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

3.41

Market Cap

$85.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($76.21)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$76.21

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$57.16

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($76.21) 25% MOS Buy Target ($57.16) Revised Graham ($147.76) Graham Number ($62.83)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$213.46

DCF Fair Value

$75.97

-181% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,348M

$100M$2,348M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)9.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$22,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$22.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$30.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$53.2B

Implied Equity Value

$30.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,571	$2,815	$3,083	$3,376	$3,696	$3,863	$4,036	$4,218	$4,408	$4,606
Present Value (PV)	$2,359	$2,370	$2,380	$2,391	$2,402	$2,303	$2,208	$2,117	$2,030	$1,946

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-239.7% Premium

$62.84

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.07BVPS: $24.82

Revised Graham Formula-44.5% Premium

$147.76

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.6% Yield

$5.58 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.2BYield: 2.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

13.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $213.46, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil WM with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Waste Management, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 19% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Waste Management, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Waste Management, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $76.21 per share compared to its current market price of $213.46. This represents an estimated 180.1% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $62.83.