What is Welltower Inc. (WELL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Welltower Inc. (WELL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Welltower Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Welltower Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector (REIT - Healthcare Facilities) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Welltower Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Welltower Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Welltower Inc. (WELL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Welltower Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksWELL

WELL

Welltower Inc.Real Estate / REIT - Healthcare FacilitiesINTACT

Welltower Inc., an S&P 500 company, is positioned at the center of the silver economy, focusing on rental housing for aging seniors across the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. Their portfolio of 2,500+ seniors and wellness housing communities are positioned at the intersection of housing and hospitality, creating vibrant communities for mature renters and older adults. They believe our real estate portfolio is unmatched, located in highly attractive micro markets with stunning built environments. Yet, Welltower is an unusual real estate organization as they view themselves as an operating company in a real estate wrapper, driven by highly aligned partnerships and an unconventional culture. Through their disciplined approach to capital allocation powered by their Data Science platform and superior operating results driven by the Welltower Business System - their end-to-end operating platform - they aspire to deliver long-term compounding of per share growth for their existing investors, North Star. Welltower Inc. was incorporated in 1970 in Delaware and is based in Toledo, Ohio.

Share Price

$235.27

52W: $163.75 - $255.2

DCF Fair Value

$57.88

-306.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

105x

ROIC

12.5%

Operating Margin

16.6%

FCF Yield

1.6%

Debt / Equity

0.41x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.87

Market Cap

$169.5B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($57.88)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$57.88

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$43.41

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($57.88) 25% MOS Buy Target ($43.41) Revised Graham ($43.12) Graham Number ($57.04)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$235.27

DCF Fair Value

$57.81

-307% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$2,756M

$100M$2,756M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)8.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$17,700M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$25.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$34.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$59.4B

Implied Equity Value

$41.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,985	$3,232	$3,501	$3,791	$4,106	$4,291	$4,484	$4,686	$4,897	$5,117
Present Value (PV)	$2,738	$2,721	$2,703	$2,686	$2,669	$2,558	$2,453	$2,352	$2,254	$2,161

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-312.5% Premium

$57.04

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $2.24BVPS: $64.56

Revised Graham Formula-445.6% Premium

$43.12

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings1.5% Yield

$3.63 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $2.6BYield: 1.5%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

20.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $235.27, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 20.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil WELL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Welltower Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 16.6% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Welltower Inc. (WELL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Welltower Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Welltower Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $57.88 per share compared to its current market price of $235.27. This represents an estimated 306.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $57.04.