What is United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

United Parcel Service, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Integrated Freight & Logistics) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

United Parcel Service, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits United Parcel Service, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksUPS

UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.Industrials / Integrated Freight & LogisticsINTACT

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Share Price

$100.31

52W: $82 - $122.41

DCF Fair Value

$109.79

+8.6%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

18.6x

ROIC

Operating Margin

9.1%

FCF Yield

6.6%

Debt / Equity

1.9x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

4.31

Market Cap

$85.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($100.31 vs $109.79 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$109.79

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$82.34

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($109.79) 25% MOS Buy Target ($82.34) Revised Graham ($81.37) Graham Number ($46.29)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$100.31

DCF Fair Value

$109.66

+8.5%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$5,594M

$100M$5,594M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$24,000M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$46.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$60.1B

Implied Enterprise Value

$106.1B

Implied Equity Value

$82.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$5,890	$6,203	$6,531	$6,878	$7,242	$7,568	$7,909	$8,264	$8,636	$9,025
Present Value (PV)	$5,404	$5,221	$5,043	$4,872	$4,707	$4,513	$4,326	$4,148	$3,976	$3,812

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-116.7% Premium

$46.29

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.38BVPS: $17.70

Revised Graham Formula-23.3% Premium

$81.37

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings7.1% Yield

$7.10 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $5.3BYield: 7.1%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

0.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $100.31, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 0.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil UPS with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for United Parcel Service, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 9.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for United Parcel Service, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, United Parcel Service, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $109.79 per share compared to its current market price of $100.31. This represents an estimated 8.6% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $46.29.