What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Airlines) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksUAL

UAL

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.Industrials / AirlinesINTACT

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America. It transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets. The company also offers ground handling, flight academy, frequent flyer award non-travel redemptions, and maintenance services for third parties. In addition, it provides freight and mail transportation services to commercial businesses, freight forwarders, logistics firms, and national postal services, as well as loyalty programs. The company distributes its products through direct channels, such as the Company's website and the Company's mobile app; and traditional travel agencies, online travel agencies, and other intermediaries. The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc. in June 2019. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Share Price

$109.92

52W: $84.64 - $138.77

DCF Fair Value

$0.80

-13640% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

10.3x

ROIC

Operating Margin

5.5%

FCF Yield

2.6%

Debt / Equity

2.02x

Piotroski Score

5/9

Altman Z-Score

4.65

Market Cap

$35.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($0.80)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$0.80

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$0.60

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($0.80) 25% MOS Buy Target ($0.60) Revised Graham ($161.54) Graham Number ($111.18)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$109.92

DCF Fair Value

$0.51

-21417.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$910M

$100M$910M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$17,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$7.5B

PV of Terminal Value

$9.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$17.3B

Implied Equity Value

$0.2B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$958	$1,009	$1,062	$1,119	$1,178	$1,231	$1,287	$1,344	$1,405	$1,468
Present Value (PV)	$879	$849	$820	$793	$766	$734	$704	$675	$647	$620

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+1.1%

$111.18

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.68BVPS: $51.44

Revised Graham Formula+32% MoS

$161.54

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.4% Yield

$2.66 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.9BYield: 2.4%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

14.6% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $109.92, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 14.6% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil UAL with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for United Airlines Holdings, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 5.5% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for United Airlines Holdings, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $0.80 per share compared to its current market price of $109.92. This represents an estimated 13640.0% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $111.18.