What is Textron Inc. (TXT) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Textron Inc. (TXT) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Textron Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Textron Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Aerospace & Defense) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Textron Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Textron Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Textron Inc. (TXT) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Textron Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksTXT

TXT

Textron Inc.Industrials / Aerospace & DefenseINTACT

Textron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates in six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance. The Textron Aviation segment manufactures, sells, and services business jets, turboprop and piston engine aircraft, and military trainer and defense aircraft, as well as offers maintenance, inspection, and repair services; commercial parts; and advanced flight training devices. The Bell segment supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircraft, and related spare parts and services. The Textron Systems segment offers unmanned aircraft systems, electronic systems and solutions, advanced marine crafts, piston aircraft engines, live military air-to-air and air-to-ship training, weapons and related components, and armored and specialty vehicles. The Industrial segment offers blow-molded solutions, including conventional plastic fuel tanks and pressurized fuel tanks; plastic tanks for catalytic reduction systems and other fuel system components; lightweight and composite pentatonic battery systems for use in electric vehicles primarily to automobile original equipment manufacturers; and golf cars, off-road utility vehicles, powersports products, light transportation vehicles, aviation ground support equipment, professional turf-maintenance equipment, and turf-care vehicles to golf courses and resorts, government agencies and municipalities, consumers, outdoor enthusiasts, and commercial and industrial users. The Textron eAviation segment manufactures and sells light aircraft and gliders with electric and combustion engines; and provides other research and development initiatives related to sustainable aviation solutions. The Finance segment offers financing services to purchase new and pre-owned aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters. Textron Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

Share Price

$81.00

52W: $78.12 - $101.57

DCF Fair Value

$33.54

-141.5% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

15.3x

ROIC

Operating Margin

8.7%

FCF Yield

3.2%

Debt / Equity

0.52x

Piotroski Score

6/9

Altman Z-Score

4.63

Market Cap

$14.1B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($33.54)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$33.54

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$25.16

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($33.54) 25% MOS Buy Target ($25.16) Revised Graham ($80.31) Graham Number ($74.81)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$81.00

DCF Fair Value

$33.30

-143.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$453M

$100M$453M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$2,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$3.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$4.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$8.6B

Implied Equity Value

$5.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$477	$502	$529	$557	$586	$613	$640	$669	$699	$731
Present Value (PV)	$438	$423	$408	$395	$381	$365	$350	$336	$322	$309

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-8.3% Premium

$74.81

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $5.31BVPS: $46.84

Revised Graham Formula-0.9% Premium

$80.31

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings3% Yield

$2.47 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.4BYield: 3%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

11.5% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $81.00, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 11.5% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil TXT with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Textron Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 8.7% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Textron Inc. (TXT) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Textron Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Textron Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $33.54 per share compared to its current market price of $81.00. This represents an estimated 141.5% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $74.81.