What is STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is STAG Industrial, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

STAG Industrial, Inc. operates in the Real Estate sector (REIT - Industrial) with an economic moat rating of NONE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is STAG Industrial, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

STAG Industrial, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits STAG Industrial, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksSTAG

STAG

Stag Industrial, Inc.Real Estate / REIT - IndustrialINTACT

STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of June 30, 2026, the Company's portfolio consists of 606 buildings in 41 states with approximately 122.6 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc. was established in 2010 and was incorporated in Maryland.

Share Price

$37.17

52W: $34.4 - $42.61

DCF Fair Value

$60.25

+38.3% MoS

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

28.6x

ROIC

27.8%

Operating Margin

37%

FCF Yield

6.4%

Debt / Equity

0.94x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

2.81

Market Cap

$7.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Margin of Safety Buy Zone (<25% Discount)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$60.25

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$45.19

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($60.25) 25% MOS Buy Target ($45.19) Revised Graham ($43.26) Graham Number ($23.47)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$37.17

DCF Fair Value

$60.16

+38.2% MoS

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$470M

$100M$470M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)18.0%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,400M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$6.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$8.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$15.0B

Implied Equity Value

$11.6B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$555	$654	$772	$911	$1,075	$1,124	$1,174	$1,227	$1,282	$1,340
Present Value (PV)	$509	$551	$596	$646	$699	$670	$642	$616	$590	$566

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-58.4% Premium

$23.47

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $1.30BVPS: $18.83

Revised Graham Formula+14.1%

$43.26

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings6.2% Yield

$2.31 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.4BYield: 6.2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

MODEST BARRIER

2.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $37.17, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 2.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil STAG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Stag Industrial, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 37% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Stag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Stag Industrial, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Stag Industrial, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $60.25 per share compared to its current market price of $37.17. This represents an estimated 38.3% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $23.47.