What is Sonoco Products Company (SON) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Sonoco Products Company (SON) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Sonoco Products Company's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Sonoco Products Company operates in the Basic Materials sector (Packaging & Containers) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Sonoco Products Company's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Sonoco Products Company's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Sonoco Products Company (SON) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Sonoco Products Company's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksSON

SON

Sonoco Products CompanyConsumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersINTACT

Sonoco Products Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and sells various engineered and sustainable packaging products in the United States, Europe, Canada, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Consumer Packaging and Industrial Paper Packaging. The Consumer Packaging segment offers round and shaped rigid paper, steel, and plastic containers, as well as metal and peelable membrane ends, closures, and components. Its Industrial Paper Packaging segment provides paperboard tubes, cones, and cores; paper-based protective packaging; and uncoated recycled paperboards. The company also offers packaging materials, such as plastic, paper, foam, and various other specialty materials. It sells its products in various markets, including the paper, textile, film, food, packaging, construction, and wire and cable markets. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Hartsville, South Carolina.

Share Price

$47.84

52W: $38.65 - $60.67

DCF Fair Value

$54.78

+12.7%

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

7.4x

ROIC

Operating Margin

10%

FCF Yield

11.1%

Debt / Equity

1.32x

Piotroski Score

4/9

Altman Z-Score

3.26

Market Cap

$4.7B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Modest Value ($47.84 vs $54.78 DCF)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$54.78

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$41.09

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($54.78) 25% MOS Buy Target ($41.09) Revised Graham ($97.86) Graham Number ($72.61)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$47.84

DCF Fair Value

$54.54

+12.3%

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$527M

$100M$527M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)5.3%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$4,600M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$4.3B

PV of Terminal Value

$5.7B

Implied Enterprise Value

$10.0B

Implied Equity Value

$5.4B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$555	$584	$615	$648	$682	$713	$745	$779	$814	$850
Present Value (PV)	$509	$492	$475	$459	$443	$425	$408	$391	$375	$359

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number+34.1% MoS

$72.61

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $6.47BVPS: $36.22

Revised Graham Formula+51.1% MoS

$97.86

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings10.6% Yield

$5.06 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.5BYield: 10.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

EXTREMELY LOW BARRIER

-5.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $47.84, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at -5.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

✓ Low market hurdle: Easy for a wide-moat compounder to beat.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil SON with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Sonoco Products Company. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 10% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Sonoco Products Company (SON) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Sonoco Products Company.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Sonoco Products Company has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $54.78 per share compared to its current market price of $47.84. This represents an estimated 12.7% margin of safety (trading below fair value). Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $72.61.