What is Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Republic Services, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Republic Services, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Waste Management) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Republic Services, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Republic Services, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Republic Services, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksRSG

RSG

Republic Services, Inc.Industrials / Waste ManagementINTACT

Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions. Its residential collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, recycling centers, and organics processing facilities; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors. The company also engages in the processing and sale of old corrugated containers, old newsprint, aluminum, glass, and other materials; and provision of landfill services. It serves small-container, large-container, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

Share Price

$222.95

52W: $196.41 - $233.42

DCF Fair Value

$101.64

-119.4% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

31.6x

ROIC

15.3%

Operating Margin

20.4%

FCF Yield

2.8%

Debt / Equity

1.19x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.31

Market Cap

$68.3B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($101.64)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$101.64

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$76.23

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($101.64) 25% MOS Buy Target ($76.23) Revised Graham ($153.81) Graham Number ($78.98)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$222.95

DCF Fair Value

$101.67

-119.3% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,943M

$100M$1,943M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)10.2%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$14,200M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$19.1B

PV of Terminal Value

$26.2B

Implied Enterprise Value

$45.3B

Implied Equity Value

$31.1B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$2,141	$2,360	$2,600	$2,865	$3,158	$3,300	$3,448	$3,604	$3,766	$3,935
Present Value (PV)	$1,964	$1,986	$2,008	$2,030	$2,052	$1,968	$1,886	$1,809	$1,734	$1,662

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-182.3% Premium

$78.98

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.05BVPS: $39.32

Revised Graham Formula-45% Premium

$153.81

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.7% Yield

$6.03 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.8BYield: 2.7%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

13.1% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $222.95, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.1% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil RSG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Republic Services, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 20.4% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Republic Services, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Republic Services, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $101.64 per share compared to its current market price of $222.95. This represents an estimated 119.4% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $78.98.