What is Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Rockwell Automation, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector (Specialty Industrial Machinery) with an economic moat rating of WIDE. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksROK

ROK

Rockwell Automation, Inc.Industrials / Specialty Industrial MachineryINTACT

Rockwell Automation, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides industrial automation and digital transformation solutions in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates in three segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The company offers drives, motion, advanced material handling, safety, sensing, industrial components, hardware, software, and configured-to-order products; and control and visualization software and hardware, digital twin, simulation and information software, network and security infrastructure, and custom-engineered systems. It also provides digital consulting, professional services, engineered-to-order solutions, recurring services, cybersecurity, safety, remote monitoring, customer technical support and repair, asset management and optimization consulting, and training, as well as spare parts. The company sells its products through independent distributors in relation to its direct sales force. It serves discrete end markets, including automotive, semiconductor, e-commerce, and warehouse automation; hybrid end markets, such as food and beverage, life sciences, and tire; and process end markets comprising energy, mining, and chemicals. The company was formerly known as Rockwell International Corporation and changed its name to Rockwell Automation, Inc. in February 2002. Rockwell Automation, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Share Price

$431.94

52W: $332.71 - $497.36

DCF Fair Value

$249.42

-73.2% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

40.5x

ROIC

15.8%

Operating Margin

21%

FCF Yield

2.7%

Debt / Equity

1.03x

Piotroski Score

8/9

Altman Z-Score

3.17

Market Cap

$48B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($249.42)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$249.42

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$187.07

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($249.42) 25% MOS Buy Target ($187.07) Revised Graham ($237.45) Graham Number ($86.87)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$431.94

DCF Fair Value

$249.45

-73.2% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$1,304M

$100M$1,304M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)10.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,100M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$13.0B

PV of Terminal Value

$17.8B

Implied Enterprise Value

$30.8B

Implied Equity Value

$27.7B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$1,441	$1,592	$1,759	$1,944	$2,148	$2,245	$2,346	$2,452	$2,562	$2,677
Present Value (PV)	$1,322	$1,340	$1,359	$1,377	$1,396	$1,339	$1,283	$1,230	$1,180	$1,131

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-397.2% Premium

$86.87

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $10.66BVPS: $31.46

Revised Graham Formula-81.9% Premium

$237.45

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2.6% Yield

$11.16 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.2BYield: 2.6%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

FAIR BARRIER

13.7% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $431.94, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 13.7% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil ROK with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Rockwell Automation, Inc.. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 21% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Rockwell Automation, Inc..

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Rockwell Automation, Inc. has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $249.42 per share compared to its current market price of $431.94. This represents an estimated 73.2% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $86.87.