What is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) DCF Fair Value and Intrinsic Value in 2026?

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) intrinsic value is calculated using conservative multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models, 5-year free cash flow trajectories, Graham Numbers, and owner earnings multiples. LocalAlpha tracks real-time margin of safety against live market prices.

What is Packaging Corporation of America's historical Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Moat Rating?

Packaging Corporation of America operates in the Basic Materials sector (Packaging & Containers) with an economic moat rating of NARROW. LocalAlpha tracks 5-year audited quarterly ROIC, operating margin stability, and balance sheet solvency ratios.

What is Packaging Corporation of America's financial health rating and Piotroski F-Score?

Packaging Corporation of America's balance sheet quality is evaluated using the 9-point Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score solvency model, debt-to-equity ratio, and quick/current liquidity coverage to guard against financial distress.

How does LocalAlpha monitor Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) for quarterly SEC filing thesis breaks?

LocalAlpha audits Packaging Corporation of America's 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K regulatory filings on SEC EDGAR within 15 minutes of release. If reported metrics breach an investor's custom ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or qualitative risk criteria, an autonomous breach audit is dispatched immediately.

StocksPKG

PKG

Packaging Corporation of AmericConsumer Cyclical / Packaging & ContainersINTACT

Packaging Corporation of America manufactures and sells containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. The company operates through Packaging and Paper segments. The Packaging segment offers various linerboard and corrugated packaging products, such as conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods; multi-color boxes and displays that help to merchandise the packaged product in retail locations; and honeycomb protective packaging products, as well as packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products. This segment sells its corrugated products through a direct sales and marketing organization. The Paper segment manufactures and sells commodity and specialty papers, as well as communication papers, including cut-size office papers, and printing and converting papers; and white papers. This segment sells papers through its sales and marketing organization. Packaging Corporation of America was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

Share Price

$234.40

52W: $191.5 - $259.98

DCF Fair Value

$54.42

-330.7% Premium

Thesis Hub

P/E (TTM)

30.5x

ROIC

9.8%

Operating Margin

13.1%

FCF Yield

2.1%

Debt / Equity

0.94x

Piotroski Score

7/9

Altman Z-Score

3.68

Market Cap

$20.9B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($54.42)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)

—()

Period Range

$— - $—

DCF Fair Value

$54.42

MOS Buy Target (-25%)

$40.82

Valuation Overlays: DCF Fair Value ($54.42) 25% MOS Buy Target ($40.82) Revised Graham ($129.00) Graham Number ($95.44)

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price

$234.40

DCF Fair Value

$54.46

-330.4% Premium

Starting Free Cash Flow ($M)$433M

$100M$433M (Reported)$50,000M

Stage 1 Growth (Years 1-5)6.5%

-5%10% (Target)35%

Stage 2 Growth (Years 6-10)4.5%

0%5%20%

Discount Rate (WACC / Hurdle)9.0%

6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)

Terminal Perpetual Growth2.5%

1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%

Net Debt ($M)$3,800M

-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt

10-Yr PV of Cash Flows

$3.7B

PV of Terminal Value

$4.9B

Implied Enterprise Value

$8.6B

Implied Equity Value

$4.8B

Year	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Yr 5	Yr 6	Yr 7	Yr 8	Yr 9	Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)	$461	$491	$523	$557	$593	$620	$648	$677	$707	$739
Present Value (PV)	$423	$413	$404	$395	$386	$370	$354	$340	$326	$312

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-145.6% Premium

$95.44

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $7.69BVPS: $52.64

Revised Graham Formula-81.7% Premium

$129.00

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Growth Rate (g%)

Bond Yield (Y%)

Buffett Owner Earnings2% Yield

$4.62 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $0.4BYield: 2%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER

17.3% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $234.40, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 17.3% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict

ℹ Fair expectations: Requires steady execution.

Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil PKG with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Packaging Corporation of Americ. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 13.1% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

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Frequently Asked Questions: Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Packaging Corporation of Americ.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Packaging Corporation of Americ has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $54.42 per share compared to its current market price of $234.40. This represents an estimated 330.7% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $95.44.