NSC

Norfolk Southern CorporationIndustrials / RailroadsINTACT

Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States. The company transports agriculture, forest, and consumer products comprising soybeans, wheat, corn, fertilizers, livestock and poultry feed, food products, food oils, flour, sweeteners, ethanol, lumber and wood products, pulp board and paper products, wood fibers, wood pulp, beverages, and canned goods; chemicals, including sulfur and related chemicals, petroleum products comprising crude oil, chlorine and bleaching compounds, plastics, rubber, industrial chemicals, chemical wastes, sand, and natural gas liquids; metals and construction materials, such as steel, aluminum products, machinery, scrap metals, cement, aggregates, minerals, clay, transportation equipment, and military-related products; and automotive, including finished motor vehicles and automotive parts, as well as coal. It also transports overseas freight through various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports; and operates an intermodal network. Norfolk Southern Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Share Price
$321.08
52W: $273.76 - $358.6
DCF Fair Value
$122.35
-162.4% Premium
P/E (TTM)
27.3x
ROIC
26.5%
Operating Margin
35.3%
FCF Yield
1.9%
Debt / Equity
1.06x
Piotroski Score
7/9
Altman Z-Score
3.25
Market Cap
$72.1B

Price vs. Intrinsic Value Corridor

Overvalued vs DCF ($122.35)

Historical market price overlaid against conservative DCF Fair Value & Benjamin Graham Margin of Safety bands.

Period Return (1Y)
()
Period Range
$ - $
DCF Fair Value
$122.35
MOS Buy Target (-25%)
$91.76
Valuation Overlays:

2-Stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Workbench

Conservative intrinsic value model based on owner cash generation over a 10-year investment horizon. Opens with LocalAlpha's baseline assumptions (matching the fair value shown above) — adjust any input to stress-test.

Current Market Price
$321.08
DCF Fair Value
$122.31
-162.5% Premium
$1,382M
$100M$1,382M (Reported)$50,000M
17.7%
-5%10% (Target)35%
4.5%
0%5%20%
9.0%
6%9% (Standard)15% (High Risk)
2.5%
1% (GDP Floor)2.5% (Inflation)4.0%
$16,100M
-$100B CashBalance Sheet+$150B Debt
10-Yr PV of Cash Flows
$17.7B
PV of Terminal Value
$25.9B
Implied Enterprise Value
$43.6B
Implied Equity Value
$27.5B
YearYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Yr 6Yr 7Yr 8Yr 9Yr 10
Projected FCF ($M)$1,627$1,915$2,253$2,652$3,122$3,262$3,409$3,562$3,723$3,890
Present Value (PV)$1,492$1,611$1,740$1,879$2,029$1,945$1,865$1,788$1,714$1,643

Benjamin Graham & Buffett Value Models

Classical deep value metrics based on asset backing, normalized earnings power, and owner cash yield.

Graham Number-132.2% Premium
$138.25

Calculated as √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS). The maximum theoretical price a defensive investor should pay based purely on asset book value and current earnings.

EPS: $11.74BVPS: $72.36
Revised Graham Formula+14.8%
$376.66

Formula: V = (EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4) / Y where g is the conservative 7-10 yr growth rate and Y is AAA Bond Yield.

Buffett Owner Earnings1.8% Yield
$5.84 / share

True distributable cash flow: Net Income + D&A - Maintenance CapEx. Reflects the cash Buffett would extract without hurting unit volume.

Total: $1.3BYield: 1.8%

Reverse DCF: Market Growth Expectation

HIGH BARRIER
18.4% CAGR (Next 10 Yrs)

At the current price of $321.08, the market is assuming the business will compound Free Cash Flow at 18.4% per year for the next decade with a 9% hurdle rate.

Value Investor Verdict
⚠ High expectations: Leaves minimal margin of safety for operational hiccups.
Autonomous Thesis Underwriting

Surveil NSC with Mathematical Margin of Safety Rules

Set non-negotiable floor rules for Norfolk Southern Corporation. If a newly filed quarterly 10-Q breaks your ROIC floor, operating margin boundary, or balance sheet leverage rules, receive an autonomous breach audit within 15 minutes.

Buffett Quality

ROIC > 15% • Margin > 15% • D/E < 0.5x

Margin Floor Guard

Current Margin 35.3% • Floor > 10%

Solvency Guard

Altman-Z > 2.6 • Current Ratio > 1.5x

Frequently Asked Questions: Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) Intrinsic Valuation

Audited fundamentals, DCF intrinsic value sensitivity, and thesis break detection parameters for Norfolk Southern Corporation.

Based on institutional multi-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) modeling on audited SEC cash flows, Norfolk Southern Corporation has an estimated DCF intrinsic fair value of $122.35 per share compared to its current market price of $321.08. This represents an estimated 162.4% premium over fair value. Additionally, its classic Benjamin Graham Number stands at $138.25.

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